Natural Gas Burner Tip Prices for California and the Western United States

Burner Tip Prices Overview

Natural gas burner tip prices attempt to account for the cost to procure and deliver gas to a natural gas-fired electric generator. Burner tip prices include both a commodity and a transportation component. The commodity component is the price of natural gas after production from the well and processing for injection into a nearby utility pipeline. The transportation component is the cost of transporting the gas from the injection point near the production basin to the electric generator for consumption. Energy planners and analysts working for regulators and utilities use the estimated burner tip prices for electricity resource planning, since fuel is a major portion of the overall cost to run natural gas-fired turbines.

Power Plant Burner Tip Price Forecast

The Energy Commission estimated burner tip prices in the 2017 IEPR Forecast - Revised Model using forecasted annual natural gas commodity prices from the 2017 Natural Gas Market Trends and Outlook Final Staff Report (Publication Number: CEC-200-2017-009-SF) and interstate, intrastate, and utility level transportation rates.

The 2019 IEPR Forecast - Preliminary Model below estimates burner tip prices using annual natural gas prices from the April 11, 2019, North American Market Gas-trade (NAMGas) Model Preliminary Common Case forecasts from 2017 to 2055. These forecasts will inform the 2019 Natural Gas Market Trends and Outlook Report, which will be prepared by staff for the 2019 Integrated Energy Policy Report. The Energy Commission has provided the five older spreadsheet-based models for historical reference.

2019 IEPR Forecast – Preliminary Model in Microsoft Excel (xlsm file, 7.6 MB)

March 2019 Model in Microsoft Excel (xlsm file, 7.8 MB)

April 2018 Updated Model in Microsoft Excel (xlsm file, 7.4 MB)

2017 IEPR Forecast - Revised Model in Microsoft Excel (xlsm file, 3.6 MB)

2017 IEPR Forecast - Preliminary Model in Microsoft Excel (Zip, 5.6 MB)

2014 Model in Microsoft Excel (Excel file, 5 MB)

To view the 2014 Burner Tip Report and supporting documents, please go to the Publications page.


Energy Commission Staff Contact:
Peter Puglia
916-654-4746
Peter.Puglia@energy.ca.gov